WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas Forecast

Crude Oil

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, depressed by concerns that the U.S.

Analysts fear Saudi retaliation would cause supply shock, sending oil prices up.

The U.S. stock market lost over 2 percent in the early session resulting from warning of higher production costs by heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. and disappointing operating results of industrial conglomerate 3M Corporate in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, with USA sanctions on Iranian oil exports set to commence this Sunday, the market is waiting to see as to what extent global supply will be impacted due to loss of Iranian oil.

In a bearish signal, the American Petroleum Institute reported US crude inventories rose 5.7 million barrels last week, more than analyst's forecasts for a 4.1 million barrel build.

"Crude has been hit hard by the broader macro sell-off and concerns about trade wars and strong dollar hurting emerging market (EM) demand".

The month of November saw crude oil continue to trade bearish in spot and futures market. Natural gas volumes decreased four percent "largely due to a continuing near-term shift in US unconventional development from dry gas to liquids", ExxonMobil said.

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To the extent that interest rate changes would be inappropriate if not for the inflation generated by rising oil prices, then the adverse economic impact coming from the oil market could be twofold in some countries. The report also showed that a tanker-tracking firm estimated Iran's losses in October at 100,000 bpd.

US crude oil production has increased significantly during the past 10 years, driven mainly by production from tight oil formations using horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.

After hitting a multiyear high just one month ago, US light crude has lost almost 20 percent and has shown a pattern that hasn't been seen in some time, according to energy expert John Kilduff.

Analysts now believe that surging output from the world's three largest producers outweighed supply concerns from the start of USA sanctions against Iran's petroleum exports which is expected to become active this weekend. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 41 cents to $64.90 a barrel.

Last week, hedge funds and money managers cut their bets that oil prices would keep rising to the lowest level in more than a year, according to Reuters market analyst John Kemp. One is high oil prices, and in many countries they're directly related to consumer prices.

"I think there might be another spike left in crude still".

The market could get some clarity next week, when sanctions on Iran's energy industry go back into full force.

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