Trump Knocks Down Oil Prices

Jihad Azour International Monetary Fund Middle East and Central Asia director speaks during an interview with AFP at Dubai's International Financial Center

ANZ bank said on Monday oil prices "took a hit after President Trump indicated he had spoken with Saudi Arabia about reducing the impact of lower Iranian oil exports by increasing flows elsewhere". "We're resisting it as much as possible", one potential buyer said. The supply concerns lead to higher oil prices.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said "Iranian oil production will fall to 1.9 million barrels per day in 2H19 from 3.6 million barrels per day in 3Q18 as USA sanctions kick in and waivers eventually expire".

Earlier in April, Moscow signalled OPEC and its allies could raise oil output from June because of improving market conditions and falling stockpiles. Based on what I see now ...

Growth in global oil demand is expected to ease to 1-1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) this year from 1.2-1.5 million bpd forecast in the March poll.

The IMF expects a 6-percent retraction in economic growth in 2019 - and that does not factor in the recent announcement by the USA that waivers on Iranian oil exports will expire next week, further deepening Iran's economic recession.

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India is already well on their way to being able to wean themselves off of Iranian oil completely thanks to the conditions of the six-month waiver granted by the United States in November 2018, which required waiver recipients to import heavily reduced quantities of Iranian oil (the waivers are officially called significant reduction exceptions). These figures are moderate at the moment, the demand is healthy, there is nothing to worry about...

Saud Arabia's state news agency, RIA, is out with the latest comments by the Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, with the key headlines found below.

Swaraj explained India's political and economic conditions to Pompeo and sought some relaxation as making immediate arrangements for 23.5 million tons of oil - the amount supplied by Iran every year - from an alternative source was not possible, the people said. Under the OPEC+ deal, Riyadh can pump up to 10.3 million bpd. The country's currency, the rial, hit record lows previous year, losing more than 60 per cent of its value against the U.S. dollar, and the government had to authorise the central bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market in defence of its currency in October.

Belarus said on Tuesday that months of work would be needed to restore clean oil supplies via the Druzhba pipeline from Russian Federation to Europe after Western oil consumers suspended imports of Urals crude due to contamination.

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