June 28, 2012
By Bilal Y. Saab – The Syrian conflict took a turn to the worse after Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom fighter jet on June 22. Here is what we know so far: * Turkey has confirmed that the jet did cross into Syrian airspace. * Syria has confirmed that it did shoot down the jet. * The pilot and electronic warfare operator have not been recovered yet. * The jet in question was an RF-4, a...
June 14, 2012
By Carlo Trezza – The 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference resolution on the Middle East and the 2010 Review Conference declaration on the Middle East call for the establishment of a WMD- free zone. The two documents also include a provision for the elimination of the “delivery systems” for such weapons. There is no precedent for such a wide and comprehensive regional arms control effort. All previous similar regional initiatives were confined to nuclear weapons. ...
May 15, 2012
By Matthew Sugrue – In an effort to contain Iran, U.S. policy makers have decided to move forward with some elements of a previously frozen arms sale to Bahrain. According to the Financial Times, Washington will sell “air-to-air missiles, components for F-16 fighter jets and potentially a naval frigate” to the small Arab nation, which hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet. In light of a violent government crackdown on popular revolts last spring and ongoing allegations of further abuse, the transaction...
April 29, 2012
By Bilal Y. Saab – If we are to understand the future of arms control in the Middle East, we must continue to study the growing role of non-state or hybrid actors in that part of the world, for some of them have more military and political power than national leaders and bureaucrats. One of these actors is Hezbollah, the pro-Iran Lebanese Shi’ite party that has a semi-autonomous military wing. My friend Nicholas Blanford, correspondant for the Times of London and the...
April 14, 2012
By Bilal Y. Saab – I have been doing some work and proposal-writing lately on an issue that obviously has gotten a lot of attention over the past few years. And it is how Iran might look and behave differently if and when it gets the bomb. Like I said, tons of work has been done on the issue already but I felt like there were some limitations and gaps in the research. I tried to address some of these issues in...
April 4, 2012
By Bilal Y. Saab – In this March 30 report by the Washington Post, we learn that US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has proposed improved collaboration with Gulf Arab states on maritime security and missile defense to counter potential threats from Iran. Not much new there, US-GCC relations are old, strategic and continue to be “rock solid” (to quote Clinton) — except —- that Washington is now starting what will be a long-term process of dealing with GCC allies on...
March 30, 2012
By Bilal Y. Saab – Is Israel’s sale of drones and anti-aircraft missile defence systems to Azerbaijan in any way linked to Israeli officials’ war plans against Iran? Some people think it is. It is far from clear if Israel’s arms sales are meant to estbablish a security relationship, or partnership, with Azerbaijan, a northern neighbor of Iran. It is too soon to tell. However, these sales, when coupled with reports of a secret Israel-Azerbaijan agreement to allow Israeli jets access to airbases in Azerbaijan...
March 30, 2012
By Bilal Y. Saab – Tests to confirm the effectiveness of Israel’s Arrow 3 system’s interceptor missile are in the works. The Arrow 3 system will serve as the long-range, high-altitude interceptor component of Israel’s overall missile defense system. The other parts of the system include the Iron Dome (short range rockets), David’s Sling (short range missile interceptors), and the Arrow 2 and Patriot systems (intermediate range ballistic missiles). According to reports, the Arrow 3 test will only be a...
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