By Gaukhar Mukhatzhanova – At the 2012 Conference on a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)-Free Zone in the Middle East, convened by Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, together with the United Nations, representatives of states in the region adopted a declaration, establishing a committee to “identify…elements of a treaty establishing a zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction and their delivery systems in the region of the Middle East.” The...
By Bilal Y. Saab – The February 14, 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri will always be remembered as a seminal event that changed the course of Lebanon’s history. It expelled Syrian troops from Lebanon after occupying the country for three decades and freed Beirut from the shackles of Damascus. While the killing of Lebanese intelligence chief Wissam al-Hassan last Friday is not likely to create the political tsunami that Hariri’s murder did seven years ago, it...
By Chen Kane – One of the main questions the organizers of the 2012 conference on a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction (MEWMDFZ) are struggling with is whether two major players, Israel and Iran, will attend the meeting in December (if it takes place). The Iranian position on the conference is somewhat of a mystery (I invite my Iranian friends and colleagues who specialize in Iranian affairs to give us their take on Tehran’s stance on...
Axis of resistance: Syrian uprising threatens Hizbullah’s strategic alliances
By Bilal Y. Saab – I re-post this September 2012 analysis, entitled Axis of Resistance: Syrian Uprising Threatens Hizbullah’s Strategic Alliances, with the permission of IHS Defense, Risk, and Security Consulting. As the conflict in Syria intensifies and the government continues to lose control over its territory due to the increasing strength and size of the armed opposition, scenarios of regime collapse are no longer distant. The question is no longer whether the Syrian regime will collapse, but...
By Bilal Y. Saab – The following analysis initially appeared in Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst, a shorter version was republished on CNN, Fareed Zakaria – GPS. With evidence of jihadist activity in Syria surfacing over the past several months, the issue now is not so much the likelihood of al-Qaeda’s presence in the Syrian conflict, but the nature of its involvement and the threat it poses to Syria’s future, regional security, and Western interests in the Middle East. In...
By Bilal Y. Saab – Despite the fact that things are getting worse in Syria, U.S. and Western appetite for military intervention is still non-existent. Is it time for Plan B then? Plan B is the containment and management of the Syrian civil war. I know, easier said than done, right? The policy was tried in Iraq, the only difference however is that there were American boots on the ground in Iraq to implement the policy and obviously there are...
By Bilal Y. Saab – This weekend, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton travels unexpectedly to Turkey to discuss the crisis in Syria and to meet with Syrian opposition figures. She must impress on them the urgent need to unite their fractious ranks. Of all the explanations for why Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has not yet been toppled, perhaps the most important is the Syrian opposition. Its continued inability to unite has contributed greatly to the drawn-out uprising, which...
By Chen Kane – A recent article by Mark Hibbs examining the implications of Taiwan renouncing enrichment and reprocessing under its proposed nuclear cooperation agreement (NCA) with the United States has sparked significant controversy. I disagree with the premise of Mark’s article – that the UAE agreement was related to the gold standard in any way – but agree with his conclusion when he says “…others will have a different calculus, depending on what they want from the...
By Bilal Y. Saab – This took longer than I expected, but it is finally out. For expert commentary on the 2012 conference on a WMD-free zone in the Middle East, I urge you to take a look at this CNS special roundtable report. It includes contributions from 12 specialists in the field of arms control in the Middle East. My essay (I am lead editor of the report) takes a long-term view at the future of arms control in...
By Bilal Y. Saab – The Syrian conflict took a turn to the worse after Syria shot down a Turkish F-4 Phantom fighter jet on June 22. Here is what we know so far: * Turkey has confirmed that the jet did cross into Syrian airspace. * Syria has confirmed that it did shoot down the jet. * The pilot and electronic warfare operator have not been recovered yet. * The jet in question was an RF-4, a...
These are all weaknesses in th
Richard! Does Aussie Dave know
Postol's latest publication ab
Mr. Rubin, I am curious if you
Thank you Uzi. You have obviou
Bruce came back to CSTPV's 20t
Bruce came back to CSTPV's 20t
Thanks for publishing in detai
The 'deal' also leaves Israel
I think that Geneva Talks pose