By Carlo Trezza – The 1995 NPT Review and Extension Conference resolution on the Middle East and the 2010 Review Conference declaration on the Middle East call for the establishment of a WMD- free zone. The two documents also include a provision for the elimination of the “delivery systems” for such weapons. There is no precedent for such a wide and comprehensive regional arms control effort. All previous similar regional initiatives were confined to nuclear weapons. ...
By Bilal Y. Saab – There is a consensus among American analysts and several current and former officials in the Obama administration including Dennis Ross that Tehran concedes only when it is under pressure. This makes sense and it applies not just to Iran but to any country, corporation, or societal actor that is in the midst of negotiations. You can say that these are the ABCs of negotiations. If you find yourself at risk of significants costs, you concede, it’s that simple. Or is it? ...
By Bilal Y. Saab – A little less than a year ago, I argued in the pages of the National Interest that one way out of the Syrian crisis (again, that was a year ago) was to try to strike a deal with Assad, keep him in power but in return he would dismantle his regime. I thought at the time that maybe the Syrian president still had some popularity among young people. Bashar could redefine himself and initiate the necessary reforms in...
By Bilal Y. Saab – Most of my recent media interventions have addressed the issue of al-Qaeda’s likely role and presence in Syria. Because we do not have accurate intelligence on this issue we should avoid definitive judgments. But we can get closer to the truth once we start asking the right questions. Questions like “who was behind the recent terrorist attacks in Syria” or “is al-Qaeda involved in Syria?” are not helpful. The answers to those two questions – unclear, perhaps – will not...
By Matthew Sugrue – In an effort to contain Iran, U.S. policy makers have decided to move forward with some elements of a previously frozen arms sale to Bahrain. According to the Financial Times, Washington will sell “air-to-air missiles, components for F-16 fighter jets and potentially a naval frigate” to the small Arab nation, which hosts the U.S. Fifth Fleet. In light of a violent government crackdown on popular revolts last spring and ongoing allegations of further abuse, the transaction...
By Chen Kane – The Finnish Undersecretary of State Ambassador Jaakko Laajava, also the current Facilitator of the 2012 Middle East Conference, presented his interim report on May 8, 2012 to the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom). It was Laajava’s first official statement since he was nominated to convene the 2012 Middle East Conference. It should come as no surprise to those who heard him last month, and followed his extensive visits to the region, that he is struggling to...
By Bilal Y. Saab – I don’t know who is perpetrating terrorist acts in Syria. There are three likely suspects: the Syrian government, the armed rebels, or al-Qaeda (it could be other suspects too but these are the more likely ones). There is plenty of reason to believe that Syrian president Bashar Assad and his cronies could be behind the bombings. They want to show the international community, and especially Washington, that they are fighting terrorists and members of al-Qaeda. I say...
How long will Riyadh wait for Washington?
By Bilal Y. Saab – According to this important April 25 Reuters story, Saudi Arabia expects to finalize its nuclear energy plans this year. In the absence of a non-proliferation, 123 deal between Riyadh and Washington, U.S. companies cannot take over this multi-billion dollar project, possibly missing out on this huge opportunity and leaving it for others (the Koreans?). I see at least two waiting games here – the first, by U.S. firms waiting for the bureaucracy in Washington to approve and ink...
By Bilal Y. Saab – There is no question that Washington is suffering from a policy logjam on Syria. The better way to move forward, I say, is by launching high-stakes talks with the Russians. I share the following thoughts on the subject, which appeared in today’s the National Interest. Other than what it has already tried, there is nothing the United States can do to stop the violence in Syria or make things better for the opposition forces there: this...
By Chen Kane – I have been thinking lately about ways to assess progress in the nuclear talks with Iran. Yes, handshakes here and there and a “pleasant atmosphere” won’t cut it for me. Here is a very good piece in the New York Times by our colleagues at Carnegie that does the job quite nicely. Since the negotiations are expected to be long and highly uncertain, Mark Hibbs, Ariel Levite and George Perkovitch provide us with some good benchmarks to measure progress: Oil prices: The oil market is exceptionally sensitive...
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