By Ibrahim Said – Egypt’s next leader could be a member of the once-banned Muslim Brotherhood (MB). Yet even if Muhammad Mursi, the presidential candidate fielded by the MB, does not win the elections, the Islamist movement-turned political party will have a growing role in Egyptian political life and a domineering presence in the country’s parliament. As a result, the perceptions, worldviews, and preferences of the Brothers’ leaders on various issues related not only to domestic affairs but also to foreign...
By Bilal Y. Saab – There is a consensus among American analysts and several current and former officials in the Obama administration including Dennis Ross that Tehran concedes only when it is under pressure. This makes sense and it applies not just to Iran but to any country, corporation, or societal actor that is in the midst of negotiations. You can say that these are the ABCs of negotiations. If you find yourself at risk of significants costs, you concede, it’s that simple. Or is it? ...
By Chen Kane – The Finnish Undersecretary of State Ambassador Jaakko Laajava, also the current Facilitator of the 2012 Middle East Conference, presented his interim report on May 8, 2012 to the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom). It was Laajava’s first official statement since he was nominated to convene the 2012 Middle East Conference. It should come as no surprise to those who heard him last month, and followed his extensive visits to the region, that he is struggling to...
By Chen Kane – I have been thinking lately about ways to assess progress in the nuclear talks with Iran. Yes, handshakes here and there and a “pleasant atmosphere” won’t cut it for me. Here is a very good piece in the New York Times by our colleagues at Carnegie that does the job quite nicely. Since the negotiations are expected to be long and highly uncertain, Mark Hibbs, Ariel Levite and George Perkovitch provide us with some good benchmarks to measure progress: Oil prices: The oil market is exceptionally sensitive...
By Chen Kane – The 2012 Nuclear Security Summit was held in South Korea in March 2012. This is the second summit, following the one held in Washington DC in April 2010. Both summits focused on how to safeguard weapons-grade plutonium and uranium to prevent nuclear terrorism. Eleven areas of priority in nuclear security were identified and presented with specific actions in each area. The 11 areas are – the global nuclear security architecture, the role of the IAEA, nuclear materials, radioactive sources, nuclear security and safety, transportation security, combating illicit trafficking,...
The day after Iran gets the bomb
By Bilal Y. Saab – I have been doing some work and proposal-writing lately on an issue that obviously has gotten a lot of attention over the past few years. And it is how Iran might look and behave differently if and when it gets the bomb. Like I said, tons of work has been done on the issue already but I felt like there were some limitations and gaps in the research. I tried to address some of these issues in...
The 2012 conference on a WMD-free Middle East
By Chen Kane – The 2010 Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference adopted a consensus document with a call to convene a conference in 2012 on the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear weapons and all other weapons of mass destruction. The conference will take place n Finland and the facilitator for convening the conference is the Finnish Undersecretary of State Jaakko Laajava. He has been very busy traveling across the region consulting with all governments about the conference agenda, desired outcome, timing, and...
The threat of chemical weapons in Syria
By Bilal Y. Saab – In this March 13, 2012 Foreign Policy article, Saab, Kane, and Spector talk about the threat of chemical weapons in Syria. The battle of Homs is over and Syrian forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad have taken control of the besieged city. Yet despite what they viewed as a “tactical defeat,” Syria’s armed rebels, who are operating under the umbrella of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) — a group of defected soldiers from the Syrian military —...
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Bruce came back to CSTPV's 20t
Bruce came back to CSTPV's 20t
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The 'deal' also leaves Israel
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